Some observations after the last campaign finance report. Numbers courtesy Wisconsin Democracy Campaign's website and the state elections board.
In a short campaign with limited media attention, the winner of the election will largely be determined by the number of doors a candidate reaches and direct mail. Fundraising directly affects what kind of reach a candidate has when he does his direct mail campaign. Also, fundraising quickly sifts out the non-serious candidates.
Scott Newcomer leads the fundraising race. He tapped himself for $30,000.00 in the form of a loan. Other Newcomers were good for another $2,000.00. Baseball fans take note: Salvatore Bando was good for $200.
Newcomer is spending $3413.45 with Clear Channel and Journal Communications on radio advertising. He spent another $4,593.00 with Art Siemann on advertising (yard signs).
At the end of the reporting period, Newcomer raised $40,900.00, spent $33,321.69, and had $7578.31 left to spend.
I did not see an expenditure for Global Movers or Two Men and a Truck.
Troy Fullerton's numbers so far are available from the Journal Sentinel. Fullerton has raised $10,040 mostly from donors, but has loaned his campaign $2,500.00. Among the interesting contributions would be $2,000.00 raised from the Michels family, including $500.00 from Tim Michels, the former candidate for US Senate in 2004. After expenditures of $3,266.00, Fullerton showed $6,774.00 on hand for the final push.
Kent Woods is probably the surprise of the finance reports. As of the close of the reporting period, Woods loaned his campaign $10,000. He's been reimbursed for "misc. costs" $1997.58. State Representative Scott Jensen also contributed $100.
Woods raised $15,231.00 and spent $11,610.59. At the end of the reporting period he had $3,620.41 left to do battle with. Among the interesting expenditures, Art Siemann did another $1,238.69 in yard sign business. Woods also spent $1,620.00 for web page design and $797.48 with Lake Country Publications in advertising.
I did not see an expenditure for The Markesan Group.
Jack Perry is not to be left out at this point. He has managed to raise $6325.00 and spend $5328.57. At the end of the reporting period, Perry had on hand $996.43.
Jack, Alice and Margaret Perry make up the majority of the contributions at $4,925.00. Of that $1,900 are in the form of loans from Jack Perry. Perry has received $1090.04 in reimbursement for various expenses, and Alice Perry has received $262.00 in reimbursement for a newspaper ad she purchased. Another contributor of note is Paul Kanter who, when he's not with Jefferson Starship, is apparently an attorney with the US Justice Department.
The Perry campaign has spent $1965.20 in newspaper advertising in the Waukesha Freeman and Lake Country Publications. Art Siemann got another $1,708.94 for yard signs (this way everyone gets a different color). Doelcam got $523.00 for bumper stickers and lapel stickers (yikes!).
Finally, David Marlow. Since he did not file electronically, we don't have as much detail (yet). However, we know that at the end of the last reporting period Marlow had raised $2,433.16. He spent $1,992.30, leaving him with a total of $440.86. Of the $2,433.16 raised, $1,700.00 came from the Zignego family. Marlow is not listed as a major contributor to his own campaign.
To put Marlow's and Perry's campaign finances in perspective, their cash on hand is actually less than Democrat Patrick Byrne's $1503.25. Byrne is not facing a primary on the Democrat side and he only had to spend $451.77 as of the last reporting period. Byrne's supporters should definitely avoid knocking Wal-Mart. Wal-Mart employee Marianne Bergs is Byrne's biggest contributor at $250.00. I wonder how she affords her health care.
Looking at the numbers, it looks like Fullerton and Newcomer are the serious candidates to watch, with Woods not doing nearly as well as he planned. The other candidates just cannot be considered credible in the closing days.
The campaign is coming down to direct mail and feet on the ground. As the district is in western Waukesha, the effect of mass media on the campaign is reduced significantly.
Newcomer's expense heavy campaign has certainly taken away any money advantage the campaign might have had. Will Newcomer reach deeper into his pockets, and will it be enough to overcome his status as a "carpet bagger"? How much is the campaign worth to him? And even if he does scrape together more cash, will Newcomer be able to outspend Fullerton enough in the final days of the campaign to overcome Fullerton's ground campaign? It's going to be close.
