So, who're votin' for?

This is when most bloggers put out their endorsements, something from which I abstain for the most part. Still, some races are worth last-minute commentary.

Out of personal friendship I wish Mike Mathias well tomorrow in his race for Milwaukee School Board. While Mike and I rarely agree politically, Mike is a very thoughtful person who will represent the district in an honest and ethical manner. Mike is a good person committed to making the public schools work. If he wins, I predict his time in office will surprise friend and foe alike.

In Waukesha, I have no idea who is going to win their seats on the school board. I can also tell you that none of them deserve to win. Not one of the candidates asked for my vote, and I vote in every election. Not one e-mail, not one person knocking at my door, not one flier, not one mail piece, not one phone call. Tomorrow we'll have to listen to the usual whining about low turnout. If nobody asked for your vote, why should you be blamed for sitting at home?

In New Berlin, I'll make the prediction that the conservative slate will again win election to the school board. The only controversy which could have been affected by the school board was the decision to move the graduation ceremony from Elmbrook. (My own thoughts are here.) Given that the opposition would have made the same decision, and given the recent history of costly lawsuits in New Berlin, I suspect it won't be an issue.

I'm predicting Ted Wysocki will return as New Berlin's mayor. Just a hunch, based upon the turbulent political history of that city.

Jefferson Davis will not rise again, and Randy Newman will win re-election in Menomonee Falls despite the opposition of "short people."

I think Daniel Gabler will beat J.D. Watts for judge in Milwaukee. I think his ad campaign was simple, direct, and had a theme that appealed to taxpayers.

Ellen Brostrom should defeat Christopher Lipscomb, if only because of her connections. This incident, while amusing, shouldn't affect the outcome, but it certainly doesn't help Lipscomb, either. By the way, I find anonymous tips much more convincing when they're accompanied by large cash payments.

The West Bend Schools referendum will get clubbed like a baby seal. If the voters weren't inclined to vote for it when the times were good, they ain't gonna vote for it now.

Chief Justice Shirley Abrahamson will win re-election. As somebody explained to me last year after the Gableman win, it took a "perfect storm" to defeat an incumbent supreme court justice, even one as weak as Louis Butler. Despite having (I think) a better candidate who ran a better campaign, the money was not there, the interest wasn't there, and (unfortunately) Abrahamson is an institution. Or she belongs in one. Either way, she wins tomorrow. Koschnick folks can take heart that I predicted the conservative candidate was going to lose in each of the last two supreme court races.

Finally, I have no idea who is going to win the state DPI race. Rose Fernandez was always a long-shot, but she's run a strong, principled race her campaign can be proud of. Her opponent, Tony Evers, generates all the enthusiasm of watching a snail race, except when he's breaking state law. If he loses tomorrow, watch how quickly his allies start complaining about how bad he was as a candidate.

Election predictions

Take them for what their worth. My track record on predictions is not pretty, although I do well on races I take an intense interest in. I don't make formal endorsements at the Wigderson Library & Pub, although my preferences are often obvious.

Gableman vs. Butler

I don't think Gableman established the "law and order" narrative he needed to oust Butler. Butler as the incumbent was always going to be difficult to be beat, and his side outspent the challenger's side. I also think the Gableman campaign really did hurt itself with the ad that misstated Justice Butler's role in the defense and eventual release of a sex offender who re-offended after serving his term.

Ironically, if Gableman had taken the high road and kept the race to a discussion of judicial philosophy and particular rulings by the court, I think Gableman would have won. I also think the Butler campaign could've scored real points on Gableman's refusal to prosecute left-wing domestic terrorists who attacked the Project ELF facility, just after the 9-11 attacks.

Butler wins 55%-45%.

Constitutional Amendment on the Frankenstein Veto

Despite the Capital Times contortions to protect the governor's powers, there was no organized effort to stop this amendment. The only fear for amendment supporters is that this was too far "under the radar" and too many Wisconsinites will vote no on principle. Even Doyle isn't out there trying to protect his veto power. I suspect passage by "beating Ed Garvey"-like margins here.

Gleisner vs. Neubauer

If you had asked me a week ago, I would've said Gleisner in a landslide. Then Gleisner's mental health became an issue and that's never good for a candidate. Sykes and Belling both objected to Gleisner calling himself a conservative. On the flip side, Gleisner has has strong support from Waukesha conservatives and made a case that he is pro-life. Now it's a squeaker either way. I'm predicting Neubauer 52%-48%, although I'm not sure what the Gleisner camp could have done differently.

Locally:

Waukesha County Board:
I'm betting Hutton over Marchese in district 3, Kolb over Mitchell in district 24. In District 22 Peter Gundrum (inc.) over Paul Lincoln Scheuble, and Patton loses to Wimmer in District 19.

Other races:
Schumann wins re-election in Delafield as mayor. Ken Harenda keeps his seat on the New Berlin Common Council. Bill Moore loses to JJ Blonien. In Waukesha District 3, Christopher Hernandez out-worked Lori Howe. Menomonee Falls Village Board Seat 1, Jefferson Davis will lose to Sharon Ellis and misfile his paperwork. New Berlin School Board the winners will be Art Marquardt (inc.) and David Maxey. Hartford's school referendum will lose while Elmbrook's will pass this time.

Idiot politician of the week

Idiot politician of the week

What a great week for the idiots. It's a miracle some polticians can walk and chew gum at the same time. This week's blog entry is for those that can't.

New York Senator Hillary Clinton reminded everyone of the 1990s the other day when she claimed her trip to Bosnia came under sniper fire. Here's a tip to would-be politicians, do not lie about an event recorded on film. Francois Mitterand famously got away with telling a similar story about a supposed attempt on his life. It helped that there were no witnesses. On the other hand, the little girl with the flowers that greeted Mrs. Clinton at the airport may have been Osama Bin Laden in disguise.

From the national to the local, Waukesha School Board President William Baumgart is not using the brains that years of evolution supposedly gave him. When asked by the Waukesha Freeman if the school board planned to endorse a candidate in the 97th Assembly District, Baumgart replied that the school district hadn't endorsed anyone in the past, and he hasn't thought about it because it didn't come up yet.

Here, let me do Baumgart's thinking for him. It's a stupid idea, and Baumgart should have told the reporter that. Furthermore, you think Mayor Larry Nelson gets into trouble whenever he endorses a candidate, just wait until some damn fool member of the non-partisan school board does it. You want to alienate any chance of public support for future referendums? Make the school board look like a partisan Democrat shop within a Republican district.

On second thought, maybe they should all endorse Roger Danielsen, the former school board member who was forced to resign in disgrace before he could be recalled.

But even that pales in comparison to the continuing saga of one Jefferson Davis of Menomonee Falls. Davis was the controversial Village President who was forced to resign in a plea deal with then Waukesha DA Paul Bucher because of Davis' continually screwed-up campaign finance reports. Davis attempted a comeback but fell short, and now he's running for village trustee. Because Davis cannot fill out the campaign finance reports properly and keep track of his receipts, he has been asked to submit his campaign finance reports to the state's Government Accountability Board to clean up before he turns it in officially. If you need Kevin Kennedy's help you truly are an idiot, and Jefferson Davis definitely wins the prize as this week's Idiot Politician of the Week.