I've been asked for more poll numbers

Jim Geraghty at National Review Online has some numbers:

# Survey USA puts them ahead by a point in Minnesota.
# The Battleground poll shows Obama's lead narrowing from 5 percent to 3 percent.
# The Hotline poll shows Obama's lead reducing slightly from 6 percent to 5 percent.

He also reports Mason Dixon has McCain back up in Virginia.

On the other hand:

The Electoral College battle playing out over roughly a dozen states puts McCain's challenge to reach the necessary 270 votes in stark terms.

McCain can't prevail without holding onto most of the states that Bush won, and he's now virtually tied or trailing in public polls in at least 10 of them — Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, New Mexico, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia — as he tries to fend off Obama's well-funded advertising onslaught and grass-roots efforts.

The GOP nominee also is only playing in five states that Democrat John Kerry won in 2004 — Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire and, now, Maine — and he's running behind. McCain abandoned efforts Thursday in one other, costly 17-vote Michigan, as Obama approaches a double-digit lead in the high-unemployment state and it became clear McCain couldn't shake Bush's drag.

Some Republicans close to McCain's campaign fret in private that Obama may be pulling away for good; others aren't so pessimistic. But there's unanimity in this: McCain has dwindling chances to regain momentum, and the upcoming debates are critical.

The debate is on

 The debate is on; McCain agrees to participate - Yahoo! News

Maybe we'll be lucky in 2008 and Wisconsin won't matter

From the latest Wisconsin Club for Growth newsletter:

Partisan Winds

Last week, Wisconsin Attorney General J.B. Van Hollen filed a much publicized lawsuit against the Wisconsin Government Accountability Board (GAB), in an attempt to force the GAB to comply with a federal law to ensure the integrity of elections. Those of us who champion the cause of ballot security applaud the Attorney General, but his critics, including Governor Jim Doyle and the mainstream media, are assailing the move as political because Van Hollen is co-chair of GOP nominee John McCain's Wisconsin campaign. Never mind that Doyle has been barnstorming the state for Barack Obama for months.

Congress enacted the Help America Vote Act (HAVA), in 2002 to require that states keep accurate voter databases to prevent people from voting under false names. The law requires states to perform periodic reviews of the voter files to ensure accuracy – which Wisconsin has not been doing. As a result, recent news reports have shown thousands of voter records to be inaccurate. while at the same time dozens of Democratic campaign workers are under investigation for trying to fatten the voter rolls with fraudulent voter registration cards.

The Wisconsin Democratic Party which is heavily invested in making sure voter fraud persists, has filed a motion to block Van Hollen’s lawsuit. The increasingly liberal Milwaukee Journal Sentinel has been quick to carry their water, editorializing that Van Hollen’s lawsuit to force GAB compliance with the law has a “whiff of partisanship.” The paper failed to mention the “stench of incompetence” emanating from the GAB staff and Doyle Administration members charged with overseeing the project.

Last year, a state audit showed that the new voter identification system would not be ready for the 2008 presidential election. The system is now two election cycles late, and without it, municipalities won't be able to determine if felons or other ineligible voters are casting ballots. Four years after deadline and more than $22 million later, Wisconsin still has no list.

The GAB signed a state contract with Accenture in 2004 to compile the list. The agreement paid the company $13.9 million to create a statewide list, with the help of local clerks. Yet in December of 2007, Accenture was forced to cut ties with the state, as very little progress was being made on the project. Despite not producing any list of value, Accenture was able to keep $7 million in taxpayer funds.

All of this has occurred under the watchful eye of GAB Director Kevin Kennedy and the Doyle Administration which has thrown tens of millions of tax dollars at other computer projects that never materialized.

The bottom line for voters this year is the louder the Democrats and the GAB kick and scream about having to follow the law, the more clear it becomes that vote fraud is critical to their election strategy. It is ironic that the GAB – which has the power to prosecute individuals for real or imagined campaign law violations – refuses to even follow the law itself.

Holy Garrison Keillor, Batman!

Minnesota is now even between Barack Obama and John McCain.

Minnesota has become a battleground in a presidential campaign that has dramatically tightened nationwide.

A new Star Tribune Minnesota Poll shows that the race is now a dead heat between Barack Obama and John McCain, each supported by 45 percent of likely voters in the state.

The new poll likely will stoke both sides' efforts during the final 51 days until the election, triggering a barrage of advertising, grass-roots politicking and, potentially, stepped-up visits by the candidates.

The poll found that McCain has made gains across the board since a May Minnesota Poll that showed him trailing by 13 points. He has picked up considerable support among men and to a lesser degree among women. He also has boosted his standing with whites, young voters and all levels of household income and education.

A quick back of the envelope calculation tells me that if Ohio continues it's trends, Michigan remains competitive, and Minnesota falls...

Well, let's put it this way. McCain wins Ohio (likely) and Minnesota (possible) he can afford to lose New Mexico and Colorado and still end up with 275. If he wins New Hampshire, so much the better. Oh yeah, McCain's doing better in Washington (- 2), too, probably thanks to Dino Rossi and Sarah Palin.

McCain at 50 percent

Rasmussen Reports is reporting this morning Senator John McCain has hit the 50% mark in the daily tracking poll.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows John McCain reaching the 50% level of support for the first time since Barack Obama wrapped up the Democratic Presidential Nomination. McCain retains a three-point advantage for the third straight day, 50% to 47% (see recent daily results).

Update! Politico has the five reasons John McCain is ahead. I still find it hard to believe McCain is ahead. Are we heading for the biggest upset since Truman defeated Dewey?

Ht: Sykes

The undecided 18 percent

Scott Rasmussen looks at the number of people who say they will not change their minds about the November election and discovers the battle is really for eighteen percent.

"...thirty-nine percent of voters are certain to vote for Barack Obama, forty-three percent are certain to vote for John McCain. That leaves eighteen percent of voters in the potential swing vote category."

Thinly-sliced cheese

Jim Geraghty at National Review reports Strategic Vision will release a poll tomorrow that shows Senator Obama up by only 3 points, 46% to 43%.

While the poll's margin of error is 3%, and Obama tends to poll better than he runs, unfortunately that's still outside the margin for busloads of false registrations showing up to vote.

Next time, go original

Welcome to the post-wedding weekend edition of the Idiot Politician of the Week.

First, let me congratulate the bride and groom. For the record, the minister kept the service reasonably short, the food at the reception was pretty good, the band was pretty good, and the Best Man did not make a toast that was terribly embarrassing or inappropriate. A good time was had by all.

Inevitably, this being the political season, politics did come up in conversation. Talking to a couple of Democratic Party types from Ohio, they were still disappointed about Hillary Clinton losing. However, the Palin pick was making them feel better about Obama. See? John McCain is a uniter, not a divider, even bringing hardcore Democrats together to feel better about their candidate.

However, none of us could figure out why Senator Barack Obama was campaigning in Terre Haute, Indiana. Even if the Senator thought Terre Haute was the 52^nd or 53^rd state on his list of 57, the residents still won’t be voting for him.

Perhaps small towns all look alike to him.

Maybe he was looking for Matt Carlson, former city administrator of Delafield. Carlson is suing Delafield claiming their decision not to renew his contract has damaged his professional reputation.

In the complaint, Carlson alleged he was deprived of his constitutionally protected property right in continued employment as the city’s administrator and interim treasurer; he lost his liberty interest without due process of law in violation of the Fourteenth Amendment of the U.S. Constitution; the five council members named in the suit conspired to injure him in his reputation and profession; and the city breached its employment agreement with Carlson by terminating him without cause and failing to pay him the sum of $12,019.20 for accumulated leave time that he earned in 2007.

Yep, the position and government salary were his property, and he’s suing. I promise I won’t go on a rant about city administrators…

Sometimes what Governor Doyle says is just so incredibly incredible, you gotta think it was really written by somebody else. Doyle just practices saying it with a straight face. And you would be right. It was revealed last week Governor Doyle used his state aide (a state employee) to write his speech at the Democratic National Convention (a political event).

Doyle aide Lee Sensenbrenner said he spent a couple of hours working on the speech. He said he and Doyle thought it was appropriate for Sensenbrenner, rather than a Doyle campaign worker, to do the work because Doyle was given a national stage to showcase Wisconsin.

“There are many occasions where he is representing and speaking for Wisconsin,” Sensenbrenner said. “This is part of his duties as governor. . . .

“This is him representing Wisconsin, advancing what he thinks is in the interest of people who live here.”

Doyle’s campaign paid for his travel to the convention.

If you were wondering how Doyle could say he wouldn’t raise taxes during the last campaign, now you know. I’m sure they were shocked they weren’t given the same opportunity to “showcase Wisconsin” on “a national stage” at the Republican National Convention, or was that a partisan event?

But this week’s Idiot of the Week award goes to Senator Joe Biden, Obama’s pick for Vice President. You may recall Senator Biden had an attempted run for the White House once before, but the campaign ended when it was revealed Biden stole a speech from Labour Party leader Neil Kinnock, and then it was subsequently learned Biden had other plagiarism issues.

True to form, Biden’s Idiot of the Week Award is for something completely unoriginal, adding to the stupidity. Biden has been caught exaggerating his personal risk of being hit by sniper fire on his trips overseas. Heck, if Obama had done a better job vetting his Vice Presidential candidate, he could have gone with the original sniper-fire exaggerator Senator Hillary Clinton. Maybe Obama can find a reason to “Eagleton” his running mate before Biden swipes some other stupidities from other candidates.

Rasnussen Reports has it even

The daily tracking Rasmussen poll with a three-day rolling average has the race at even.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows the beginning of John McCain’s convention bounce and the race is essentially back where it was before Barack Obama’s bounce. Obama now attracts 46% of the vote while McCain earns 45%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 48%, McCain 46% (see recent daily results).

The numbers at Rasmussen should go up.

Tracking Poll results are based upon nightly telephone interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. Virtually all of the interviews for today’s update were completed before McCain’s speech last night. Roughly two-thirds of the interviews were completed before Palin’s speech on Wednesday night.

McCain speech text

National Review Online has posted the whole thing in the Corner.

You'll want to remember this moment

You'll want to save this moment.

(ht: Cindy Kilkenny)

I wonder who Biden is going to pick as his running mate?

Even the CBS poll shows Senator Obama's lead gone. (Ht: Sykes)

Oh yeah, that's before Palin's speech last night.

The presidential race between Barack Obama and John McCain is now even at 42 percent, according to a new CBS News poll conducted Monday-Wednesday of this week. Twelve percent are undecided according to the poll, and one percent said they wouldn't vote.

This is in contrast to a poll conducted last weekend, where the Obama-Biden ticket led McCain-Palin by eight points, 48 percent to 40 percent.

Joe Biden's gotta be thinking, "I could have been Hillary's running mate."

Something new every day

Jay Nordlinger wishes former Senator Bob Dole was speaking at the convention:

Two Wars, Two Heroes [Jay Nordlinger]

I wish Bob Dole were here at this convention, speaking for McCain — he wore a POW bracelet that bore his name, for years.

My opinion of Bob Dole, already high, just went up.

Joe Lieberman at the Republican Convention

This will screw up parking by my dentist's office

JOHN McCAIN & SARAH PALIN

For McCain Street U.S.A.

Friday, September 5th, 2008
Doors Open at 8:00 a.m.
Program Starts at 10:00 a.m.

Downtown Cedarburg
At the corner of Washington Ave. and Columbia Rd.
Please RSVP by calling (414) 326-4235, or clicking here.

RSVP is encouraged but not required.

CNN has them in a virtual tie

So much for the convention bounce.

Obama 49, McCain 48

Gov. Palin’s approval: 38%, with 21% unfavorable and 41% never heard of her or have no opinion.

First poll with both tickets complete.

Conducted Aug. 29-31, much of it over a weekend, when pollsters usually do not take surveys. Error margin: 3 points.

Truthfully, I'm as shocked as anyone.

Nat Hentoff on Sarah Palin

Hentoff endorsed the idea of Palin as McCain's running mate back in May:

Three days after she gave birth, Mrs. Palin was back in her Anchorage office with her husband and Trig. "I can think of so many male candidates," she tells the AP, "who watched families grow while they were in office. There is no reason to believe a woman can't do it with a growing family. My baby will not be at all or in any sense neglected." Says the governor of Alaska: "I will not shirk my duties." Taking her stand for life as a holder of high political office is all the more valuable in the face of the termination of fetal lives as not worth continuing before they can speak for themselves. Mrs. Palin's stand also puts a searching light on the growing "futility" doctrine in hospitals which is affecting people of all ages.

Nancy Valko, a medical ethicist and intensive-care nurse I consult on these lives-worth-living debates, has emphasized that "with the rise of the modern bioethics movement, life is no longer assumed to have the intrinsic value it once did, and 'quality of life' has become the overriding consideration." Because of Mrs. Palin's reputation as a maverick, and her initial reduction of state spending (including pork-barrel spending), life-affirming Palin connects with voters. For these reasons, she has been mentioned as a possible vice presidential running mate for Mr. McCain.

She would be a decided asset: an independent Republican governor, a woman, a defender of life against the creeping culture of death and a fresh face in national politics. She was described in "the Almanac of National Politics" as "an avid hunter and fisher with a killer smile who wears designer glasses and heels, and hair like modern sculpture." Moreover, I doubt that she would engage in such campaigning, as Sen. McCain's strongly implying that a Hamas terrorist saying he would like Barack Obama to be president thereby damages Mr. McCain's opponent (though Mr. Obama has totally condemned Hamas). Still unknown is whether Mrs. Palin would be as flip-flopping as Mr. McCain on the Bush torture policy that has so blighted our reputation in the world. But we would find out: If chosen as his running mate, she would create more interest in this already largely scripted presidential campaign.

And her presence could highlight Mr. Obama's extremist abortion views on whether certain lives are worth living — even a child born after a botched abortion.

WOW Zogby McCain 47 Obama 45

With that news, we're all tied up.

The latest nationwide survey, begun Friday afternoon after the McCain announcement of Palin as running mate and completed mid-afternoon today, shows McCain/Palin at 47%, compared to 45% support for Obama/Biden.

In other words, the race is a dead heat.

The interactive online Zogby survey shows that both Obama and McCain have solidified the support among their own parties - Obama won 86% support of Democrats and McCain 89% of Republicans in a two-way head-to-head poll question not including the running mates. When Biden and Palin are added to the mix, Obama's Democratic support remains at 86%, while McCain's increases to 92%.

Technorati Tags: Zogby, Joe Biden, Sarah Palin, John McCain, Barack Obama

Red State Update Likes Sarah Palin

But then Jesse gets the bad news at the end. (Warning: Some bad language.)

Technorati Tags: Red State Update, Joe Biden, Sarah Palin, John McCain, Barack Obama

Big eight

The Hill is reporting Senator Barack Obama's poll bounce was eight points. That was before McCain announced his running mate, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, and before the Republican National Convention.

Oh yeah, and before the next Biden eruption.

Technorati Tags: Barack Obama, Sarah Palin, Joe Biden, John McCain, Gallup