In Waukesha, where Carol "Doing the tax tango on my desktop" Lombardi is not running for re-election, there are seven -whoops, make that six- candidates for the job: Waukesha Democrats favorite alderman Larry Nelson, Alderman James Connors, Waukesha County Supervisor Andy Kallin, Dean Field, James Young Jr and State Representative Ann Nischke (R). Police officer Bill Beglinger has withdrawn from the race.
Nischke would seem to be the prohibitive favorite. She's armed with the most name recognition, has done little to tick conservatives off, and her district (see map) covers most of the city of Waukesha. Add that she'll probably have no trouble raising money for direct mail and whatever mass media she decides to do and she should be set.
The primary election is February 21st, and the general election would be April 4th. April 4th is the key date, because in the next few days afterwards Governor Doyle is likely to call for a special election for the vacated 97th State Assembly seat.
After all, there would be no reason for the governor to stall on having Waukesha Republicans spend more cash on a uncompetitive seat rather than invest in either of his two potential challengers or a competitive Assembly seat elsewhere.
Using the timeline outlined by the state election board's legal counsel George Dunst Waukesha could be looking at another special primary election as early as May 9th, with a general election as early as June 6th.
To put the race in a financial perspective, Nischke originally spent around $50,000 to win her seat in 2002. Scott Newcomer, who won the special primary election in the 33rd Assembly on December 13th, had spent over $33,000 as of the last reporting period and is likely to spend much more before the special general election on January 10th.
A successful candidate to replace Nischke will need to be able to raise a large amount of cash early, most likely from their own finances. Even "a grass roots effort" will need to be able to be competitive in the amount of direct mail sent to voters in the district. Given the closer proximity of the district to the Milwaukee media market, a successful candidate may have to do some spending there as well.
It's likely that the candidates that run in the election to replace Nischke will almost all be similar on the issues, including abortion and taxes. So it will be the candidate that can raise the money and has the best organization that will win. Whoever it is better start thinking about it now.
