Saturday, May 07, 2005

Mind boggling Derby

I did not bet on the Kentucky Derby this year, saving myself about $100.00. Instead I watched it with my wife and afterwards just sat there stunned when they ran the numbers on what the exacta and trifecta paid.

Giacomo, a 50-1 shot, followed by Closing Argument, a 70-1 shot, with Afleet Alex (the horse I favored) running third.

Giacomo $102.60 $45.00 $19.80
Closing Argument $70 and $24.80
Afleet Alex $4.60

According to ESPN,
The exacta paid a Derby-record $9,815. The trifecta was a Derby-record $133,135. The superfecta from a $2 wager was a Derby-record -- and scarcely believable -- $1.7 million.
Afleet Alex had impressed me so much during the Arkansas Derby, jocky and rider running such an intelligent race that I absolutely loved them in a crowded 20 horse field. And he ran the same race... and Giacomo ran the same race and still had something left when the time came.

For the curious, Mark Belling's betting strategy did not fare so well today, though I suspect he was far from alone. He did make the call on Spanish Chestnut:
#13 SPANISH CHESTNUT — Same ownership as #15 Bandini and will be used to burn out Bellamy Road and High Limit on the front end to try to set things up for Bandini. No shot at winning himself.
When Spanish Chestnut was in the lead my wife asked if he could hang on. I responded I hope his owner took a good picture at that point because that would be the best he'll look today. By the next turn he was just one more horse blocking traffic.

So what prognosticator did especially well today in a race with big upsets? Mary Eileen's 13 year old daughter over at Stand in the Trenches. Unfortunately, no money down. Hey, she should at least be excused from doing the chores for a week or something. In the meantime, I wonder who she likes in the Preakness?

Update! Dummocrats didn't do so well handicapping the race either, but lists ten horses to watch for next year. We'll have to watch the California horses more closely to see if a trend develops.