What saved Russ Feingold? He couldn't be that popular, not even within his own party? How about good timing?
Feingold first lucked out by having a weak fellow Democrat as governor. The GOP heavy hitters decided to bypass Feingold and look to the future. Governor Doyle should be relatively easy to knock off, at least that's the perception. Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker has all but announced. Where are Congressmen Ryan and Green? Ryan may be shooting for a spot in leadership, but how about governor as a fallback? Not bad, not bad.
Then you throw in the presidential race. No election exists in a vacuum, but the presidential race has sucked all the money and attention right out of the room. Michels may as well be operating in a vacuum, because there's nobody around. (Stretching metaphors, if a campaign loses in the forest when nobody is paying attention, does it still make a sound?)
And what of Feindgold's opponent himself? Michels was supposedly recruited by the Bush people, according to WISN Mark Belling, because he was self-financing. A relative unknown who lost a previous race for state senator, Michels managed to fight and win convincingly a three-way primary that ended in September. At the time, there was talk the race might be winnable. But Michels rested, shades of Susan Engeleiter losing to Herb Kohl, and then came out swinging on a perfectly lame issue, Canadian drugs, shades of Susan Engeleiter. Feingold was easily able to parry this attack by outbidding Michels (never try to out-liberal a liberal) and Michels lost valuable time, ground and stature. The promised national GOP money suddenly vanished, and Michels looks a lot like.... Susan Engeleiter (minus the dress).
Michels may have been tricked by the oldest play in the GOP recruiting handbook. The party operatives recruit someone who can spend his own cash by promising more cash and help for the campaign. Then, once their cannon fodder is loaded, they walk away. (See: Lisa Soik, recruited against then state senator Lynn Adelmann.) We'll never know, because when the money walked away, Michels tried to pretend it was a good thing. Given the liklihood of beating Feingold, perhaps Michels will have more to say after election day.
At best, Michels can expect to get is 48%. Who knows what would have happened if one of the bigger names or a more experienced campaign had taken on Feingold this year.
