Tomorrow is election day in the 33rd Assembly District. Tomorrow we find out if Scott Newcomer really does have to move into the district someday or if he can sell the vacant lot for cash to make up for the amount of money he's pumped into this race.His opponent, Democrat Patrick Byrne, gets to find out if his moment in the sun was merely a low budget flame-out or the harbinger of a Democrat somehow winning in the most conservative part of the most conservative county in the state.
Here's a clue: if you have to say you're going to win because you're not going to spend money against a candidate who's got hundreds falling out of his pockets, you're going to lose. Here's another clue. If you have to beg the voters to set their natural preferences for a political party aside in a partisan race, you're going to lose.
If I was a betting man (hey, I am!) I'd say the over/under on the percentage margin of victory is roughly the same as the last time Vrakas pasted Byrne in 2004. 72% to 28% is not unreasonable. Not much of analysis, but not much of an analysis needed. The carpetbagger wins in a landslide.Of course, everyone in the 33rd assembly district might read my words and decide to make me look stupid. That's about Byrne's only chance.
