The posted odds at right are for entertainment purposes only. After all, wagering is illegal in Wisconsin. The posted odds are the odds of winning, not the predicted order of finish.Now James, you may say, you're a betting man, how would you wager? Well, that's a tough question.
Normally in a primary race like this, you gotta look at the geography, the money, the candidates, and the issues. Often in that order. But Newcomer's outside-the-district status and Kent Woods' Madison lobbyist past opens up the race a bit more.
Given 2 1/2 candidates live in Delafield and another candidatelives in Hartland, the geography advantage would go to Troy Fullerton. Fullerton lives in the Town of Waukesha at the far end of the district from his opponents. His geographic base is uncontested. However, Fullerton has never held public office, so he has to hope that his endorsement by the Waukesha Taxpayer League and whatever work he and his campaign supporters have done on the ground is enough.
Fullerton also had a decent money advantage judging by the cash-on-hand reported during the last reporting period. While behind Newcomer, and not having spent as much as Woods, Fullerton did have the 2nd most cash-on-hand. His fundraising base was broader, in that he was not the main source of campaign funds for his own campaign. Issues, Fullerton is a sound tax-cutter and is pro-life.
Scott Newcomer lacks a geographic base, unless you count Elm Grove. The question then becomes has Newcomer spent enough money to overcome his carpetbagger status and the rap sheet on his business practices. And if he hasn't gone over the top, can he rach deeper into his pockets for more, more, more. While he fights in the air (direct mail, radio), he keeps busy on the ground. We'll see if his voter targeting can overcome no geographic base.
On the issues, Newcomer appears to be sound as well, though he recently stumbled on the question of town mergers. While the other candidates said the issue was a matter for the locals to decide, Newcomer came out in favor of annexations.
Kent Woods of the Town of Delafield finds himself competing with Jack Perry for the same turf. Nearby David Marlow, and interloper Scott Newcomer, make the geographic issue moot. Woods finds himself struggling to overcome his lobbyist past when he lobbied against the Taxpayer Bill of Rights (TABOR), the hot button issue of the campaign. However, has raised the second most amount of money in the race and has spent the second highest amount in the race. He is a factor if the remaining candidates split their votes.
Jack Perry, also of the Town of Delafield, may show surprising strength in the end. As of the last campaign finance report he actually spent more than Fullerton, and has attracted some attention in Wales.
David Marlow has attracted some endorsements in the closing days, but can they overcome his lack of money? Also, how much energy has he really put into this campaign? We know he has run before for the State Senate seat out here and lost, but then it was one on one, liberal vs. conservative. In a field of five conservatives, he has yet to demonstrate enough of a difference to overcome any of his disadvantages.
So, were I to wager on this election, I would say it comes down to Fullerton or Newcomer. It may be a blowout by one of them. The others are just hoping to slip through, and hope ain't enough.
(Update! How I would vote tuesday: Click Here)
