What impact will the Falk/Lautenschlager race have on the Republican side? I'm going to say the race probably hurts Van Hollen more than Bucher. Van Hollen has made it a point to try and attract some cross-over votes from the Democrats (given some of the endorsements he's pursued). While some crossing over in the primary may have occurred due to a highly competitive primary for the nomination for Governor between Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker and Congressman Mark Green, the Falk candidacy means Democrats are even more likely to stay at home in their own primary.
We might also see a few of the endorsements Van Hollen got from Democrat DAs suddenly vanish as the Democrats suddenly discover a more attractive candidate on their own side. This normally wouldn't be a big deal, but endorsements have become an issue in the Republican primary, affecting the candidates' credibility with primary voters. Look for the Bucher campaign to take advantage of any cross-endorsements of Falk and Van Hollen.
The increased interest up-state in the attorney general's race will be more than offset by where the Democrat campaign will play out. Every dollar spent by the Falk and Lautenschlager campaign in the battleground of Milwaukee can only help Paul Bucher by reminding local Republican primary voters about the election. Bucher will be in the enviable position of sitting right next to the largest media market in the state and taking shots at both of the Democrats in the primary, generating valuable free air time. To get attention, Van Hollen will actually have to campaign on Bucher's home turf for votes. That can't be good for Van Hollen.
