On the one hand, I think if Bush wins it would take a multi-state legal challenge for Kerry to try to take back the election. If Bush loses, it will only take one, but Bush's supporters just won't have the stomach to fight. I am concerned, but I don't think turnout will be as high as everyone thinks. I think Pennsylvania or Michigan will probably be for Bush which, while throwing my prediction off, will happily lock it up. My only question is fraud.
I like the total 296 votes, but I see where it could be split 269-269, and it could easily be 335 for Bush. Or, it could go 306 votes for Kerry (which would be the worst case, I think). But here's how hard it is for Kerry: Bush is going to take at least one of three of Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota, and one of three of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Ohio. If Bush takes one of three of the large states and two of three of the small states, Kerry is toast. If Bush takes Florida (likely) and then takes Wisconsin or Minnesota, he wins without Ohio or Pennsylvania or Iowa. Florida is the key, and Bush is likely to win there, but he can even win without Florida.
