Monday, May 05, 2008

Zogby has Clinton in trouble

Take the poll for what it's worth. Zogby claims Senator Clinton is down in both Indiana (slightly) and North Carolina (more so).

The survey of likely Democratic Party primary voters shows that in North Carolina, Obama leads with 48% support, compared to 40% for Clinton and 13% either undecided or preferring someone else. In Indiana, Obama is nursing a tiny lead of two points, winning 44% support, compared to 42% for Clinton and 15% unsure or wanting someone else.

Both candidates stumped for votes in Indiana Sunday, as the state’s voters prepare to cast ballots in Tuesday’s elections. Actually, early voting has been underway in both states for awhile (longer in North Carolina than in Indiana), and this latest Zogby polling shows one-quarter of North Carolina voters – 26% – have already voted, and 13% in Indiana have already cast ballots.

Hold off on adjusting your wagers accordingly.

The telephone surveys, conducted May 3-4, 2008, are the latest of Zogby’s two-day daily tracking surveys that will continue until the last release tomorrow morning. In North Carolina, 624 likely Democratic primary election voters were polled. The survey carries a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percentage points. In Indiana, 636 likely voting Democratic primary voters were surveyed. That poll also carries a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percentage points.

The telephone surveys were conducted using live operators working out of Zogby’s call center in Upstate New York.

The last Zogby poll released tomorrow morning could look very different from one conducted over a weekend.