Saturday, August 11, 2007

I hope this person isn't in charge of counting the votes

Today is the Ames Iowa straw poll and the fun has already started. (the Iowa counterpart to asked it's readers to guess the order of finish and the percentage of votes received by the winner. In a summary of the results, here's the predicted order of finish and the average ranking of each candidate:

Mitt Romney - 1.2
Mike Huckabee - 3.8
Rudy Giuliani - 4.7
Sam Brownback - 4.8
Fred Thompson - 5.0
Tommy Thompson - 6.4
Tom Tancredo - 6.6
Ron Paul - 6.9
John McCain - 7.2
Duncan Hunter - 9.1
John Cox - 10.4

Take it with a grain of salt.

Contestants also answered two tiebreaker questions.

In one, they were asked to guess what percentage of the vote the winner would end up with. The responses averaged out to 33.4 percent, with a low guess of 8 percent (which would be essentially impossible with 11 candidates on the ballot) and a high guess of 65 percent.

The second tiebreaker asked respondents to predict the total number of votes that would be cast at the straw poll. The responses averaged out to 26,845 votes, roughly 3,000 more than the 23,685 cast in 1999. Responses to this question ranged from a low of 982 to a high of 55,000.
The person who entered 8 percent must be the same person who figured out that government efficiency can eliminate $3.5 billion in health care spending.

For the record, my off-the-cuff last-minute entry:
44,000 votes
Romney 32%
Rudy Giuliani
Fred Thompson
Tommy Thompson
Duncan Hunter
Ron Paul
John Cox