Saturday, October 04, 2008

I've been asked for more poll numbers

Jim Geraghty at National Review Online has some numbers:

# Survey USA puts them ahead by a point in Minnesota.
# The Battleground poll shows Obama's lead narrowing from 5 percent to 3 percent.
# The Hotline poll shows Obama's lead reducing slightly from 6 percent to 5 percent.

He also reports Mason Dixon has McCain back up in Virginia.

On the other hand:

The Electoral College battle playing out over roughly a dozen states puts McCain's challenge to reach the necessary 270 votes in stark terms.

McCain can't prevail without holding onto most of the states that Bush won, and he's now virtually tied or trailing in public polls in at least 10 of them — Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, New Mexico, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia — as he tries to fend off Obama's well-funded advertising onslaught and grass-roots efforts.

The GOP nominee also is only playing in five states that Democrat John Kerry won in 2004 — Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire and, now, Maine — and he's running behind. McCain abandoned efforts Thursday in one other, costly 17-vote Michigan, as Obama approaches a double-digit lead in the high-unemployment state and it became clear McCain couldn't shake Bush's drag.

Some Republicans close to McCain's campaign fret in private that Obama may be pulling away for good; others aren't so pessimistic. But there's unanimity in this: McCain has dwindling chances to regain momentum, and the upcoming debates are critical.